6 critical charts to watch ahead of the 2022 midterm elections
Although the issue represents a controversial topic, investors should realize that the 2022 midterm elections are coming soon. Moreover, with President Joe Biden’s administration generally struggling to advance its agenda, the upcoming battle for control of Congress will be crucial. If the Republicans win, they can potentially block the president, who would then set the frame for 2024.
Now, if history is any guide, Republicans have a good chance of winning both the House and the Senate. Without jumping one way or the other, it’s probably fair to prepare for at least one red wave in the 2022 midterm elections.
According to data from UC Santa Barbara, in the “22 midterm elections from 1934 to 2018, the president’s party lost an average of 28 House seats and four Senate seats. The president’s party won seats in the House only Three times, but won Senate seats on six occasions. The president’s party won seats in both chambers only twice.
To be clear, these are extraordinary times, so it’s possible the Democrats have a surprise in store for us in the 2022 midterm elections. Either way, below are some critical stock charts to watch ahead of the votes.
Sturm Ruger (RGR)
Regardless of personal opinions about the ammunition industry, the overriding reality is that because of the Second Amendment, qualified, law-abiding U.S. citizens and permanent residents can purchase firearms. Speak Washington Post, there are more guns than people in this country. And that makes the gun maker Sturm Ruger (NYSE:RGR) one of the must-have rankings ahead of the 2022 midterm elections.
Given that the subject of self-defense and the right of individuals to bear arms represent a great controversy, RGR is intrinsically among the real-time economic and social indicators to watch before the midterm elections of 2022. Still, it it can be a against a current indicator as well.
If political circumstances bode well for Republicans, then arguably the primary incentive to acquire guns – fear of restrictive gun control measures – will diminish. Therefore, lower stock valuations for RGR could imply a Republican push. The reverse may be true for a surprise run of Democrats.
So far, the RGR is down about 33% over the previous year.
Lockheed Martin (LMT)
Famous defense contractor Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) represents one of the top rankings to watch ahead of the 2022 midterm elections. Yet LMT embodies ambiguities. Therefore, it may contain contradictory information.
Traditionally, Republicans present a pro-military and pro-defense profile. Thus, a rising LMT price may indicate growing support for Republicans in most other circumstances.
It’s not most other circumstances. Basically, the Democrats led the charge against the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Even going back to the archives, it seems that Democrats have a stronger sense of global politics. For example, then-Senator John F. Kennedy arguably presented a more compelling framework on geopolitics than former Vice President Richard Nixon.
Given that the Biden administration continues to support Ukrainian resistance and independence, a rising LMT could be a positive indicator for Democrats. Over the past year, shares have risen nearly 13%.
NextEra Energy (NEE)
In my opinion, NextEra Energy (NYSE:BORN) unquestionably represents a must-have graphic ahead of the 2022 midterm elections. By developing wind and solar energy infrastructure, NextEra provides the tangible platform for climate change ideology. Scientists recognize that we humans have to do something to solve the problem, and NEE is a cog in the solution machinery.
If NEE shares rise, the perhaps obvious conclusion is that the narrative strengthens Democrats. To be fair, many conservative politicians also support environmentally sustainable policies. However, the left tends to get the most attention for making climate change a top priority on its political agenda. So, a bullish NEE price chart could mean a positive outcome for the Democrats.
On the other hand, a falling NEE price chart could be an indicator that Republicans could enjoy a big day for the 2022 midterm elections. According to the Pew Research Center, as environmental concerns have increased between the two main political parties, the prioritization gap remains enormous. Over the past year, the NEE has gained around 5%.
Meta platforms (META)
Owning the largest social media network of Facebook, Metaplatforms (NASDAQ:META) is one of the rankings to watch anyway. But ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, there aren’t many more relevant actions.
Basically, members from all political and ideological walks of life expressed their concerns about Meta’s hegemony. As noted by the Pew Research Center, a majority of American adults think “their personal data is less secure now.” Moreover, they believe that “data collection presents more risks than advantages”. In some ways, it’s no surprise that META fell apart this year.
On the other hand, an argument has come to the fore about Big Tech and social responsibility. For example, the deliberate dissemination of misleading narratives can cause social harm. Ironically, the Columbia Journalism Review pointed out that in 1987, under President Ronald Reagan’s Federal Communications Commission, “the fairness doctrine was abandoned, removing the required balance from broadcast reporting.”
This is a difficult question to decipher. However, in my opinion, a rise in the META price bodes well for the Democrats. However, META is down 62% over the previous year.
Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL)
Frankly, you can’t get more from Big Tech than Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGNASDAQ:GOOGL). Basically, under the Google umbrella, Alphabet effectively owns the internet. According to the latest data, Google maintains a global market share of 92% for the search engine segment. Nothing else comes close.
However, as with Meta above, privacy issues have become a top priority in recent years. According to another Pew report, half of Americans “have decided not to use a product or service because of privacy concerns.” Therefore, GOOG and GOOGL present major challenges for both parties. Partly because of this, they are also charts to watch ahead of the 2022 midterm elections.
Fundamentally, many young people care about social justice. It is then possible that they support censorship initiatives that mitigate against potentially dangerous ideas. After all, for a tolerant society to succeed, it must not tolerate intolerance. Politically, I see the rising GOOG and GOOGL prices as positive for Democrats. Yet the fact on the ground for the current year is that GOOG is down 29%.
Just mention the name Harley-Davidson (NYSE:PORK) and certain images immediately come to mind. Because the company represents a niche segment, it is a clear indicator of conservative ideologies.
According to one data set, Harley-Davidson tends to attract mostly males, aged 55 and older. Significantly, the company has attempted to reach other demographic groups. Obviously, with the aforementioned rich diversity of the United States, you can’t settle for a narrow lens. However, the company also struggled to expand beyond its consumer base.
However, these struggles also make the HOG a useful indicator for charts to watch ahead of the 2022 midterm elections. Yes, the Democrats are riding motorcycles, too. Still, as an average point of view, Harley leans toward conservative sentiments. So a rising HOG price bodes well for Republicans. Currently, the HOG is 3.5% below parity over the previous year.
As of the date of publication, Josh Enomoto had no position (directly or indirectly) in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author, subject to InvestorPlace.com Publication guidelines.